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Contrarian case for Intel ( INTC )



There was a point in time historically I remember when we use to say the best PC / Server processors were all Intel and AMD used to have heating issues until they were able to crack the code ,well seems like Intel is ready for its Nokia moment at least its reflected in its stock price now and recent declines.

Intel did innovate at least in server chips and PC chips but all of sudden it seems the pace of innovation of rival chipmakers was far too much for Intel to handle here, either we talk in terms of the AI chips or competing with nanometers.

As of today Jan 06,2025 Intel is (INTC) is trading at $19.87 per share.



In Q3 2024, Intel reported a net revenue of $13.28 billion, a decrease from $14.1 billion in the same quarter the previous year. The company posted a loss per share of $0.46, compared to earnings of $0.41 per share in Q3 2023.

Business Unit Performance:

  • Client Computing Group (CCG): Revenue of $7.3 billion, down 7% year-over-year.

  • Data Center and AI (DCAI): Revenue of $3.3 billion, up 9% year-over-year.

  • Network and Edge (NEX): Revenue of $1.5 billion, up 4% year-over-year.

Financial Position:

  • Total Current Assets: $46.1 billion.

  • Property, Plant, and Equipment (Net): $104.2 billion.

  • Equity Investments: $5.5 billion.

Intel's stock has declined over 60% in 2024, marking the largest drop in its 53-year history.

Despite challenges, Intel's Data Center and AI segment showed growth, indicating potential in AI-related ventures. The company has provided Q4 2024 revenue guidance between $13.3 billion and $14.3 billion.

Intel's Price-to-Earnings (P/E) ratio is currently negative, indicating a net loss over the past 12 months. This contrasts with its competitors in the semiconductor industry, who maintain positive P/E ratios.

Competitor P/E Ratios:

  • Advanced Micro Devices (AMD): P/E ratio of approximately 52.91

  • NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA): P/E ratio of around 56.88

  • Qualcomm Incorporated (QCOM): P/E ratio of approximately 17.56

Industry Average:

The semiconductor industry's average P/E ratio is about 60x

Interpretation:

Intel's negative P/E ratio reflects recent financial challenges, including net losses over the past year. In contrast, competitors like AMD, NVIDIA, and Qualcomm exhibit positive P/E ratios, indicating profitability. The industry's average P/E ratio further underscores Intel's current underperformance relative to its peers. 

Ok , that seems like a lot of negative news with a ray of hope in the AI Chip business and some existing long terms server chip commitments with clients like Amazon. 

If we just want to evaluate where Intel stands as compare to its peers in terms of AI chips , this table just summarizes the data well 

I bet many of us might now even have heard about that product , but wait it does have some key points and features and it is actually comparable to Nvidia H100 in some aspects. 


Saying that it means Intel is still alive , well alive with a potential turn around possible so as a contrarian view point with all the AI Chips buzz Intel has a potential to turn things around and have a AMD Ryzen moment or there is a fair chance if things are favorable for a potential merger , rumors are there for Broadcom to acquire but those were discarded by the CEO. 

However considering the cash on hand Intel has which is around 24 billion , it does have all the reasons to prove and turn around. 

At CES 2025, Intel unveiled several significant advancements across its product lines, emphasizing enhanced performance and AI integration. Key announcements include:

1. Continuation in Discrete Graphics:

  • Intel Arc B580 Graphics Card: Intel reaffirmed its commitment to the discrete graphics market, introducing the Arc B580 GPU, which sold out rapidly, indicating strong market demand. Additionally, the company announced plans to release the budget-friendly B570 GPU soon.

2. Core Ultra 200HX Series CPUs for Gaming Laptops:

  • Performance Enhancements: The new Core Ultra 200HX series, based on the Arrow Lake architecture, offers approximately 5% improvement in single-thread performance and a 20% boost in multithread performance compared to previous generations.
  • Flagship Model - Core Ultra 9 285HX: Features 24 cores (8 performance and 16 efficiency cores), a boost frequency of 5.5GHz, 4 GPU cores, and a 13 TOPS NPU, catering to next-generation gaming laptops.

 3. Core Ultra 200H and 200U Series for Thin-and-Light Laptops:

  • 200H Series: Designed for improved graphics performance with a base power of 28 watts.
  • 200U Series: Focuses on battery efficiency with a base power of 15 watts, suitable for ultra-portable devices.

 4. AI Integration in Consumer Devices:

  • "AI Inside" Initiative: Intel emphasized its focus on integrating AI capabilities directly into consumer processors, marking a new era of intelligent computing.

 5. Collaborations with OEMs:

  • Samsung Galaxy Book 5 Series: Samsung's latest laptops, the Galaxy Book 5 Pro and 360, are equipped with Intel's Arrow Lake Core Ultra processors, enhancing AI software capabilities and overall performance.
  • Acer Aspire S AI All-in-Ones: Acer introduced new all-in-one PCs featuring Intel Core Ultra processors and Copilot Plus AI, offering advanced performance optimization.

 6. Expansion in Mobile Processor Lineup:

  • 22 New Mobile Processor Models: Intel announced plans to launch at least 22 mobile processors, including the Arrow Lake-H and HX series, expanding its presence in the mobile computing market.

These announcements underscore Intel's strategic focus on performance enhancement, AI integration, and collaboration with industry partners to deliver cutting-edge technology solutions across various computing segments.

Thus, turn around is all positive hope or will it potentially see a merger or get acquired all are just the positive check marks for a value investor. 

Thanks for sticking around till the end—you're a real trooper! That’s all for now. No grand conclusion here, though... you’ll have to put on your investing hat and figure out if INTC is the missing piece in your portfolio puzzle. Good luck, and may your stocks be ever in your favor!


Stay figgy,

The Figured Figs Team ðŸŒ±


Disclaimer: “This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, legal, or tax advice. Readers are encouraged to consult a licensed professional before making any financial decisions."


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